A Buffett of algos for agtech

Michael Lee of Syngenta Group Ventures examines the mental “algorithms” that guide venture capital investment in agtech, contrasting it with biotech and public markets to highlight the need for disciplined valuations and realistic exit expectations. He argues that agtech’s structurally smaller market, limited buyer pool, and reliance on M&A exits—rather than IPOs—demand conservative valuation assumptions, capital efficiency, and early strategic alignment with potential acquirers. The essay concludes that inflated valuations are harmful, high burn rates often lead to poor outcomes, and investors should focus on realistic exit values and capital discipline to improve agtech investment returns.