AI-Driven Electronics Boom Prompts HKTDC to Raise 2026 Export Forecast to Above 20% Growth

The Hong Kong Trade Development Council (HKTDC) has revised its 2026 export forecast upward to year-on-year growth of above 20%, citing a stronger-than-expected performance in the first five months and sustained global demand for technology products. The revision, announced today alongside the HKTDC Export Confidence Index for the second quarter of 2026, reflects improved exporter sentiment as both the Current Performance Index (51.0) and Expectation Index (52.4) rebounded above the 50 threshold.

“The recent upturn has been supported by resilient regional trade amid the AI-driven technology cycle,” said Bruce Pang, HKTDC Director of Research. He noted that while uncertainties persist, particularly in the Middle East, the outlook for many of Hong Kong’s major markets has improved, with the Chinese Mainland and ASEAN remaining the most promising. Sentiment toward the US market strengthened following the Xi-Trump meeting in mid-May and recent trade policy developments.

Hong Kong’s exports recorded a robust 36.2% year-on-year increase in the first five months of 2026, underpinned by strong demand for electronics amid an accelerating global AI cycle. Electronics accounted for more than 70% of total exports, with semiconductors and intermediate items performing particularly well. The proliferation of AI applications—including generative AI and enterprise digitalisation—has triggered demand for high-performance chips, ICT equipment, and related components, significantly boosting Hong Kong’s re-export trade to the Chinese Mainland, ASEAN production bases, and major developed markets.

However, a notable portion of recent growth has been price-driven. Tight supply conditions in the semiconductor sector have led to significant price increases for memory chips and advanced processors. Wing Chu, HKTDC Deputy Director of Research, explained, “The export value of key electronic components has risen faster than order volumes, with price increases amplifying overall growth. As production capacity expands and supply constraints ease, semiconductor prices are expected to moderate, potentially softening export value growth over the longer term, even as underlying demand for AI-enabled devices remains resilient.”

Hong Kong’s role as a regional trading hub, facilitating the flow of electronic parts and semi-manufactured goods across Asian supply chains, has been critical to its strong export performance. This intermediary role is expected to remain a source of resilience even as component prices normalise.

Kenneth Lee, HKTDC Section Head of Special Projects & Business Advisory, noted that steady overseas demand for consumer products has provided additional support, reflecting resilient global consumption. Looking ahead, uncertainties include geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East, volatility in global energy prices, and policy risks such as evolving US trade measures and rising protectionism among major trading partners.

For more details, the HKTDC’s 2026 Mid-Year Export Review and Outlook is available at https://research.hktdc.com/en/article/MjM2MzkxMjA0Nw, and the Export Confidence Index report at https://research.hktdc.com/en/article/MjM1OTg2MDIzOQ. Additional research can be found on the HKTDC Research website: https://research.hktdc.com/en/.

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