El Niño fears overblown, but agribusinesses urged to strengthen supply chain defences

Forecasts predict a strong El Niño by late 2026, raising concerns about global food crises, but ING analysts argue that global agricultural production is likely to remain resilient due to advances in technology and the growing importance of Brazil as a crop producer. The greater risk is regional, especially in Asia-Pacific, where drier conditions threaten wheat, rice, sugar, palm oil, and aquaculture, potentially leading to export restrictions and rising prices. ING urges agribusinesses, particularly those in or sourcing from Asia-Pacific, to invest in supply chain resilience and risk monitoring to better prepare for climate-driven disruptions.