Precision ag adoption forecasts have been wrong for 20 years, landmark study finds

A major study analysing 21 years of data finds that forecasts of precision agriculture technology adoption have been consistently and substantially overestimated by industry dealers, with no clear pattern explaining which technologies are most affected. The overestimation persisted across time, with particularly large gaps emerging in the early 2020s as actual adoption rates flattened or declined while forecasts remained optimistic. Researchers attribute this to industry narratives and a failure to revise expectations despite contrary evidence, warning that such persistent errors can lead to commercial risks and misguided investments. The study urges agribusiness leaders to exercise scepticism, update models with new data, and recognise that technology adoption in agriculture is often slower and more irregular than predicted.