Architecture in a K-shaped economy with ‘widening differences’ between sectors, AIA says

The AIA’s latest Consensus Construction Forecast has projected a 0.3% decline for U.S. nonresidential building construction spending in 2026 amid continued economic uncertainty and uneven performance across sectors. The forecast characterizes the market as “K-shaped,” with sectors tied to public funding, healthcare demand, and artificial intelligence investment outperforming interest rate-sensitive sectors.

Through the first five months of 2026, nonresidential building construction spending fell 7% in nominal terms compared with the same period in 2025, following a 2% decline in 2025 to $846 billion. Institutional construction remains one of the strongest-performing sectors. After increasing 1.9% in 2025, institutional spending is forecast to rise 2.8% in 2026 and 2.7% in 2027, with healthcare and recreation projects expected to lead growth.

Manufacturing construction receiv...